The ink on Carson Wentz’s four-year, $128 million (a minimum of) contract extension is barely dry, and Eagles followers are already within the throes of post-purchase nervousness.
The prohibitive summer time favorites to win the NFC East are foundering, having misplaced two video games in a row and 4 of their final six. Throughout that stretch, Wentz is 22nd in passer score and 27th in yards per move try, and he has fumbled eight instances (shedding 5). Eagles followers, who as soon as famously booed Santa Claus, have responded by turning their ire in opposition to the quarterback who was as soon as seen as a franchise savior. It is a stunning flip for a participant who adopted his injury-shortened 2017 breakout with a 2018 season that was arguably simply nearly as good (albeit additionally injury-shortened).
In Professional-Soccer-Reference.com’s adjusted passer score index, the place 100 is precisely league common and better is best, Wentz scored a 116 in each his second and third seasons — uncommon proficiency for a quarterback that early in his profession. Wentz grew to become simply the 13th quarterback because the merger to prime an adjusted passer score of 110 in profession years two and three.
|12 months 2||12 months Three|
|Participant||Workforce||Season||Adj. score.||Season||Adj. score.||Professional Bowls years Four+|
|J. Goff||L.A. Rams||2017||114||2018||114||TBD|
|T. Brady||New England||2001||111||2002||110||13|
|J. Montana||San Francisco||1980||123||1981||122||7|
|Ok. Warner||St. Louis||1999||128||2000||132||2|
|J. Garcia||San Francisco||2000||127||2001||123||2|
|Ok. O’Brien||N.Y. Jets||1985||129||1986||115||1|
Wentz is in unique firm. Most of those passers went on to make a number of Professional Bowls after their third seasons — solely Bernie Kosar did not earn subsequent Professional Bowl honors.
However ought to Wentz’s efficiency in his fourth season make us reevaluate his future and query his potential to generate a ample return on Philadelphia’s multiyear funding?
His adjusted passer score this season of 97 falls slightly below league common, as does his unadjusted passer score of 89.6. Based on ESPN’s Stats & Info Group, his play success charge on dropbacks is 45.Four % — equivalent to the leaguewide common after Week 12 — and it’s barely modified from his 45.7 % charge in 2017 (his 2018 charge was larger). And his 2019 efficiency has been handicapped by Philly’s schedule, the league’s fifth-toughest thus far, although the Eagles have the NFL’s best schedule from right here on out.
However Wentz has struggled in areas which are inside his management. A serious criticism has been his obvious unwillingness to take fast, brief completions to open receivers. He’s ceaselessly chosen to look previous easy short-yardage plays and ended up with compelled incompletions or worse, sacks.
When Wentz does take what the protection provides him, the Eagles are significantly better off. On passes thrown inside 5 air yards of the road of scrimmage, Wentz has the second-best QBR amongst qualifying quarterbacks. However on all different throws, something 6 air yards or deeper, Wentz’s QBR is much beneath common, rating 31st amongst qualifying quarterbacks. But Wentz throws a smaller share of brief passes than the NFL common.
The Eagles additionally lack receivers who’re in a position to get open downfield. Approach again in Week 1, speedster DeSean Jackson gave the impression to be the perfect complement to the strong-armed Wentz. However Jackson has performed solely 15 snaps since and is out for the rest of the season after core muscle surgical procedure. And the standing of the Eagles’ different veteran vast receivers, Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor, is up within the air, and each have been targets of the group’s aggrieved followers.
This rash of accidents is forcing the Eagles to play inexperienced wideouts. As detailed by former NFL quarterback and ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky, these receivers have run poor routes. So whereas followers could fault Wentz for dangerous throws, his receivers seem to deserve a few of the blame.
However that’s hardly prone to chasten the group’s followers who vented Monday on native speak radio, criticizing Wentz not only for the errant throws, however for an Eagles season that has sailed badly off track.
Trying Forward: Week 13
Greatest matchup: No. 5 Minnesota (-Zero.5) at No. 7 Seattle, eight:15 p.m. ET Monday
The Vikings and Seahawks have every basically locked up their playoff spots — each groups’ likelihood is upwards of 93 % — however this sport nonetheless has loads of divisional implications on prime of its sheer high quality. Seattle is attempting to chase down the 49ers for the NFC West title. This might be a first-rate alternative for the Seahawks to strike, as San Francisco’s schedule is getting considerably more durable over the rest of the season. Our mannequin thinks Seattle can be extra prone to win the division than not (55 %) if it wins Monday. Equally, the Vikings are at the moment tied atop the NFC North with the Packers, who’ve cooled down not too long ago after a 7-1 begin. Minnesota would have a 62 % probability of profitable its division if it beats Seattle. As for the matchup itself, each signal-callers may need a discipline day: Kirk Cousins (No. 5 in our Elo QB rankings) and Russell Wilson (No. 7) are among the many prime quarterbacks within the league, whereas each defenses have struggled at slowing down the passing assault. By way of limiting opposing QB Elo rankings, Minnesota ranks 19th and Seattle ranks 22nd. Contemplating how evenly matched these two groups are, this might be the perfect sport of Week 13.
|Favourite||Underdog||Favourite’s Win prob||High quality||Evenness||Significance||QBs|
Greatest playoff implications: No. 16 Cleveland at No. 18 Pittsburgh, 1 p.m. ET Sunday
Potential shift in playoff odds: 38.5 whole proportion factors
As nice as Minnesota vs. Seattle seems on paper, this conflict between the Browns and Steelers seems ugly. Neither QB is taken into account elite; in actual fact, Cleveland’s Baker Mayfield remains to be beneath common in QB Elo regardless of a current four-game sizzling streak, and Pittsburgh’s newly minted starter, Devlin Hodges, is without doubt one of the worst QBs within the league. However what it lacks in matchup high quality, this sport makes up for in playoff significance and unadulterated bitterness. Based on our predictions, Cleveland has a 30 % probability of snagging a wild-card spot, whereas Pittsburgh is true behind at 27 %. (Neither group has any sensible probability of catching Baltimore of their shared division.) In each instances, the winner’s playoff odds would surge to almost 50-50 with the victory — particularly, Cleveland would have precisely a 50 % probability, and Pittsburgh would sit at 45 %. However each groups’ possibilities would drop beneath 10 % with the loss: 9 % for Cleveland and eight % for Pittsburgh. With such lengthy odds for the loser, that makes this a type of playoff elimination sport … and we can also’t neglect the horrible scene that performed out when final these groups met two weeks in the past. Though it seems like neither Myles Garrett nor Mason Rudolph will play this time round, there’s even much less love misplaced between these two golf equipment than ordinary — and that’s saying one thing.
Greatest QB duels: No. 5 Kirk Cousins (MIN) vs. No. 7 Russell Wilson (SEA); No. Three Dak Prescott (DAL) vs. No. 11 Josh Allen (BUF); No. Four Drew Brees (NO) vs. No. 10 Matt Ryan (ATL)
FiveThirtyEight vs. the Readers
As a weekly custom right here at FiveThirtyEight, we take a look at how our Elo mannequin did in opposition to everyone who made picks in our forecasting sport. (If you happen to entered, you will discover your self on our leaderboard right here.) These are the video games during which Elo made its finest — and worst — predictions in opposition to the sphere final week:
|OUR PREDICTION (ELO)||READERS’ PREDICTION|
|PICK||WIN PROB.||PICK||WIN PROB.||End result||READERS’ NET PTS|
|PHI||51%||SEA||58%||SEA 17, PHI 9||+6.1|
|ATL||70||ATL||65||TB 35, ATL 22||+5.1|
|BAL||58||BAL||66||BAL 45, LAR 6||+Three.eight|
|NO||81||NO||81||NO 34, CAR 31||-1.6|
|HOU||60||HOU||60||HOU 20, IND 17||-1.eight|
|PIT||77||PIT||76||PIT 16, CIN 10||-2.eight|
|CLE||78||CLE||76||CLE 41, MIA 24||-Three.2|
|NE||73||NE||70||NE 13, DAL 9||-Four.Three|
|TEN||63||TEN||59||TEN 42, JAX 20||-5.1|
|BUF||78||BUF||71||BUF 20, DEN Three||-6.1|
|CHI||76||CHI||68||CHI 19, NYG 14||-6.6|
|SF||60||SF||54||SF 37, GB eight||-7.9|
|NYJ||51||OAK||60||NYJ 34, OAK Three||-13.7|
|WSH||50||DET||62||WSH 19, DET 16||-15.9|
One other week, one other large win for Elo. The algorithm beat the sphere for the eighth straight week, this time by a margin of 54.Zero factors on common. Though the readers picked up factors for believing in Seattle and Baltimore extra (and believing much less in Atlanta) than Elo, that was greater than offset by large losses of their disagreements with Elo over Washington and the Jets. These outcomes alone value the common reader 29.6 factors; the remainder have been made up by small variations the place Elo hedged extra within the right course. The algorithm’s document on the season in opposition to the sphere is now 10-2.
Congratulations are so as, although, for David Johnston, who led all readers in Week 12 with 203.eight factors, and for Aaron DiGenova, who saved maintain of the full-season contest lead with 917.Three factors. Because of everybody who performed — and when you haven’t, make sure you get in on the motion! You may make picks now and check out your luck in opposition to Elo, even when you missed Week 12.
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